Importing a used car from Japan??

 Here is a post for you folks wanting to import  a low mileage car from Japan. They are called JDM cars(Japanese Domestic Market). My experience was mixed possibly because of who I purchased it from.  You can only import cars older than 25 years into the US or older than 15 years if imported into Canada. I found a white 1998 Camry wagon called the Gracia. The pics looked great. Mileage was 89000 kms or about 50000 miles. It had a nifty radio touch screen and cloth interior with faux wood trim, no dents, no rust. I paid about  $2800 for the car and shipping to Tacoma was another $2000. I ordered in in Nov 2022 and it finally arrived late December 2023 or about 14 months after I ordered it. It was supposed to be shipped in  early Jan 2023 but that didn’t happen. Problems with transport I was told. This went on for 8 months with the same excuse and finally the emails dried up. No car and I was out 5 grand. Scammed I assumed. Finally in early fall 2023 I decided to write  registered letters to the Tokyo Times and to the CEO of the company telling of my plight and demanded immediate shipment or my money back. Nothing for a month from the newspaper or the company  and then finally an email from the CEO’s office giving me an exact shipping date of November and an arrival to the Port of Tacoma in December. They promised import documents which you need to fetch it and get thru customs. They were to be sent DHL to my home address   about when the car left Japan. They never  arrived. The car did and the Port people said “Come and get it!” You have to use a customs broker who helps you to file the correct forms. You have to get the Japanese import  documents translated as well which costs money($130). The Custom broker I used charged about $750 and she was absolutely wonderful and competent but without documents I was up the creek. After 10 days the car starts to accumulate storage charges of about $25/day. I had been calling Japan and leaving texts from  well before Christmas but no one answered. It seems they take a LONG Christmas/New Years vacation but finally after New Years I got a text saying my documents had JUST been sent  DHL and they arrived in Wyoming in the first week in Jan of 2024, this year. From then on things moved swiftly and my broker got everything approved and I drove to Tacoma and returned with my Camry a few days ago. But it was not the  low mile  condition Camry I ordered. It did not have 89000 kms. It had 250000! It did not have a nice double din radio. It had a big hole where the radio had been and a broken bezel  trim panel from inexpert removal. The Car  Jack was also removed.  So they either sent me another white Camry wagon or they lied about the mileage and removed the radio. That is the bad news. The good news is that this wagon is pristine for a 1998 and has had excellent service clearly obvious when I put it on a lift. No rust, all the fluids like new and great tires exhaust system, drive lines etc. I am still trying to negotiate some settlement with these folks but so far no communication other than ” we will get back with you.”  My fees after the car arrived were about $1000 for the broker. Excess storage charges were $460 and then there was my travel about 1900 miles RT with motels,meals  dolly rental and mods to my Tahoe which came to almost another $1000 and then another $250 for a tow truck when my 4×4 Tahoe got mired in deep snow passing through Idaho.. 

       I have learned a few things from this episode and I can offer some advice for anyone contemplating importing a car from overseas, primarily Japan.  One useful website is Japanesecartrade.com. This is a clearing house of information on the used car export trade. There is also an association called JUMVEA which is composed of 213 member exporters. There are different levels of membership depending upon time in business and feedback from buyers and other Japanese rating organizations. The highest level is “Gold.”These exporters buy their older used cars on daily auto auctions. all over Japan. They bid on these cars and so can you but you have to use them do offer your proxy bids OR you can just buy from them directly. I bid for several months without success and I used two dealers who were well established and members of their dealer association. They were SBT and Integrity Exports. I found they gave excellent service but they were unable to find the car I wanted, a  25 year old Toyota Camry Gracia wagon. I ended up going to a  small recently admitted dealer member of JUMVEA  who happened to have one.  I have chosen not to reveal its name for obvious legal reasons. When I attempted to buy it by wiring funds from my local bank, my banker called me and said he was concerned about the risk I was taking. His objection was the company had a minimal website which had only been up and running for 8 months and they were unable to get feedback from buyers using that company or meaningful financial information. I then went back to the internet and tried to find any news, good or bad on the company and could find nothing. After mulling this over I decided to go ahead. It was my money, my risk  after all. . The bank discouraged me but wired the funds. And you know the rest. The reason the big dealers didn’t have many  old Camrys was obviously their low value. They preferred to deal in older high value cars like LandCruisers and Prados , Camper Vans and Mercedes. There are many organizations here in the US that regularly import used JDM vehicles for USPS mail delivery vehicles as well as those desirable LandCruisers which are often available in excellent condition with low miles and no rust.Japan is a small country with a small road network and excellent mass transit and most cars get little use. It can be a good deal and Youtube is full of videos on the process. The problems I had were poor dealer service and communication and some level of misinformation verging on fraud, I suppose. But in the end despite all these hurdles, I ended up with a satisfactory older and very rare stationwagon never available in the US after 1996, albeit for a very stiff price of nearly $7000 after all costs were taken into account. Would I do this again? The answer should be obvious.

Book Review

The Fourth Turning Is Here:
by

Neil Howe

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The Fourth Turning is Here(2023) by Neil Howe is a must read as a retrospective summary of 500 years of AngloAmerican history as influenced by 25 generations. I was impelled to review it because some of reviews in my opinion were incomplete and inaccurate. I hope this overview will help the reader to better appreciate and understand this important book.
Neil Howe is a modern polymath known for his book “The Fourth Turning(1997)” which he co-authored with Richard Strauss which was my introduction to the theory of cyclical history as seen and influenced by the behavior of generations. Howe and Strauss had written 2 previous books with a similar theme. Their thesis which was in no way original was a cyclical view of history with repeating patterns of societal events influenced by the different generations which strongly influenced and shaped the direction and outcome of those events. The cycle followed approximately 85-100 year periods which encompassed one long human lifetime composed of an arbitrary 4 generations. Howe and Strauss gave each generation peculiar names which follow in the set order of :Artist, Prophet,Nomad, Hero and then repeating with Artist superimposed upon the cycle length of 85-100 years which he labels a saeculum. These 4 generations were then superimposed upon significant historical events. These historical events were in turn divided into 4 segments which lasted 20-25 years and labeled as “Turnings.” The first turning started with “crisis, the next, awakening, the next, unraveling and then repeated again with crisis. FOUR is the magic number throughout the book. There are 4 seasons, spring, summer, fall and winter and four periods in a human life, four types of temperaments:sanguine, choleric, melancholic, and phlegmatic. There are 4 elements: earth, air, fire and water. There are 4 characteristics of matter: hot, cold,wet, and dry, and so forth. These are ancient concepts going back many millenia. Are you getting the picture?
This number FOUR dominates the structure of the arguments posed in the book.
The next important concept is how humans understand time and changes over time. There are three(not four) types of ways to understand time: chaotic time, cyclical time, and linear time. Chaotic time is common in premodern societies and has no pattern. Events follow upon events with no rhyme or reason. Cyclical time sees events following a series of repeating events. Cyclical time has a long historical basis. This is how Strauss and Howe view history. The last view is Linear which is the view that history follows event upon event as “progress”. Linear history has a beginning and an end. Time is thus unidirectional. This is the prevailing view in the current civilization in his opinion..
Neil Howe adheres to the cyclical view of historical events and spends 578 pages trying to show a cyclical pattern of events in history, in economics and demography and his big leap in this book is to state confidently that the events unfolding in this 21st century will likely follow with the same pattern and duration of past 100 year long “saecula” influenced and driven by the various generations. . The book is thus a prediction of what we can expect this century if we think that history follows cycles. He spends a large section of the book analyzing the events since 9/11 to the present laying out in great detail(too much detail!!) on the morphology of the impending “Millenial Crisis” along with other likely crises, financial, social, international which will lead up to an Ekpyosis, a sort of final conflagration of the Fourth Turning. A global war, a Civil war are included in the mix. He seems very confident in the trajectory and the outcomes.The book is thus a prediction of what we can expect this century if we think that history follows cycles. But it is well to keep in mind the wisdom of Yogi Berra who said “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.”
I was impelled to write a review of this book after reading both commercial and reader reviews of the book, some of which implied that this view of historical events was Neil Howe’s personal “Theory.” In fairness to Howe, he nowhere in the book claims that his theory of history is original. He follows a long line of historians from the 14th century Islamic genius Ibn Khaldun who wrote a ground breaking theory of history entitled Muqaddimah,”Introduction to History.” Howe’s achievement in this book is his encyclopedic and detailed and painstaking examples to buttress his view of generations determining cyclical sequences of events. At a minimum this book is a wonderful and unique book of history which I found endlessly fascinating. A section I particularly enjoyed was his concise summary of great historical events from the present all the way back to the War of the Roses. The reader should keep in mind that this is primarily a view of relatively recent Anglo-American history, not Asian, not European or Russian history. It is retrospective which is what history is. The value and perhaps the flaw in this book is his eagerness to predict in agonizing detail future events based upon past events which he thinks will closely follow a script of past Saecula. I will leave it to the reader to ponder and decide the validity of Howe’s thesis. I will offer some gentle critiques of this important book.
The first is Nate Hagen’s idea that our civilization of people are a Superorganism. We are an entity of 8 billion people acting out our roles on the stage with our own thoughts and actions which are interrelated in an impossibly complex web of action/reaction. The superorganism has been characterized as a complex adaptive system. Howe in an excellent section in the book invokes this non linear complex behavior invoking chaos and complexity theory. This branch of “science or mathematics/statistics, says that seemingly insignificant perturbations in one area can influence outcomes is a distant unrelated realm. This is the so called “butterfly effect” attributed to Lorenz in Chaos theory where a flapping of a butterflies wings in Brazil could determine distant weather events like a tornado or hurricane. The superorganism concept by its non linear complex nature would seem to imply prediction would be impossible or unreliable.
Another “weakness” if I can call it that, is the limited scope of his model, 4 or 5 hundred years of just American history. Howe does give examples of other civilizations which may have followed similar cyclical patterns of generationally determined events. But these examples are nowhere near as detailed and complete as his Anglo-American model.
Howe skips over other cyclical events of history like the collapse of civilizations which is certainly part of a general theory of history. There are many proposed theories of civilization history where the civilization goes kaput. How did the various generations influence those outcomes? Instead Howe cones in on the late 2020’s and early 2030’s as the culmination of the crisis, the Eckpyosis in which it all comes together or falls apart.
    The prime focus of the book hence its title is that we are approaching a “crisis” turning in the current and perhaps next decade which will likely involve social unrest and war. He does not think that this crisis will end our American civilization. It will just be a period of crisis which will remove deadwood and bad societal functioning which will be followed by a “Spring” Turning of rebuilding and renewal and cooperation and community reestablishment. That is his hope and certainly all our hope. My opinion is that “This time it’s different. It may be very different.
My contention is that his model may be flawed in some respects because his models were of a world with mostly less than a billion humans and just some tens of millions in North America. The society was rural. Communication was nil. Almost everyone were farmers. The Industrial Revolution had not occurred which would be powered by fossil energies of coal and oil. The role of this energy in the trajectory of the American experiment is ignored by Howe. Neil Howe is entirely “Energy Blind.”Nowhere does he mention the inevitable decline of the fossil energy sources that define our civilization. His examples of how America overcomes the crisis years and embarks on a rebuilding of society and new infrastructures and industries into an “awakening” is at times to my ears too glib and certain. Where will the energy and the money come from? How all this happens depends upon which generation is in charge doing the work and pulling the strings. Since each generation share different “Weltanschuungs” their outlook and problem solving strategies differ, some times radically. Will the dominant generation be aging “Gen Xers” or Millennials? This is not the world of America today. Seven eights of us are urban in near constant communication completely reliant upon complex systems of technology using long supply chains from distant ports. Our opinions are molded by a few large corporate media sources and as a people we are not self sufficient in providing the basics of even food and water and shelter. Many would argue we have exceeded the carrying capacity of the planet. The fossil energy which supports the economy is finite and soon to be in decline. My point is that there are many many other factors which will influence events beside how millennials or Gen Xers or aging baby boomers react.
   I think Howe ‘s contention of cyclical historical trends are persuasive and as I said endlessly fascinating. He is certainly a brilliant intellectual historian and his notes and bibliography is over 100 pages. I must admit I had difficulty following his various models of the generations and how each generation cooperated or clashed but that may be my failing. I think it is fair to say there was a lot of repetition in the text with perhaps too many examples used to buttress his opinions. He has VERY strong opinions and certainties with which the reader not agree. I have seen almost no reviewers who offer contrary opinions to this book This reviewer is skeptical of certain outcomes however confidently expressed. Yet Neil Howe is a brilliant and engaging man and has given many excellent interviews to the media such as on YouTube. I leave the validity of his predictive conclusions to the reader’s judgment.

Net Zero Nonsense (Continued…….)

  I have long been influenced in this blog by a  scientist named Vaclav Smil, professor emeritus at the University of Manitoba. He has authored 40 books and more than 500 papers dealing with energy and its role in the world’s industrial economy.

     In one of his books he writes about the 4 Key pillars of our industrial economy. They are steel, plastics, cement and ammonia. There are more pillars but Vaclav has chosen to list just these four. The key aspect of these four is that they all require specific fossil fuel inputs. I will take them individually. Take steel. Steel is not the same as iron. We have had iron for a very long time. One of the earliest sources was “bog iron” obtained during the Iron Age from about 1000 BC. These were chunks of iron that could be obtained from swamps and bogs without mining and was easier to smelt than using hard rock iron ore.  The most valuable and useful use of iron is in the manufacture of steel. Steel is made by adding small amounts of carbon to iron and this carbon can be added from carbon sources such as charcoal , carbon monoxide or coal. The modern productions of steel didn’t really take off as an industrial product until the Bessemer process was invented in the 1800s by an Englishman of the same name. Even something as common as stainless steel didn’t come into broad use until about 70 years ago.  The modern production of steel requires, indeed demands fossil energy inputs from diesel engines mining, and transporting the ore and coal to smelt and refine it into a product with the desired characteristics needed by its users. The Bessemer process demands the use of coal. Not only does coal provide the extreme heat needed to melt ore, it is essential as a cheap carbon source in order to convert iron into steel. You cannot make steel with the energy from a windmill or a solar panel or the Hoover Dam. OK, technically it is possible to use an electric arc furnace to melt and fabricate steel but for economical production of steel from ore you need an abundant and cheap carbon source and that is coal. IF coal disappears it may be possible to make steel in small quantities just as in former times by cutting down trees and using charcoal but when coal disappears, so will large scale steel production. It is theoretically possible to treat iron ore with hydrogen but it is far from economic given the paucity of industrial hydrogen almost all of which is derived from natural gas .

    Plastics used in our current economy are made from natural gas and petroleum inputs such as natural gas liquids. There are hundreds of varieties but the petrochemical industry is entirely reliant upon these cheap fossil feed stocks. It is theoretically possible to make plastics or even any hydrocarbon from carbohydrates  or algae or peanut butter but large scale economical  production of plastics demands these fossil sources.

     Cement is another pillar that is made at high temperature using fossil fuels which heat limestone to 2700 F mixed with silica sources. The resulting product is clinker which is ground down to a powder. If it is mixed with sand it becomes mortar which has been used for millennia to bind bricks and stone. If it is mixed with sand and pebbles it becomes concrete which is really the pillar of civilization. The energy involved in making cement is huge and limestone is fired with coal, gas or oil.  In a town I used to live in (Pocatello ID) we had a cement plant that used to fire its kilns with scrap tires until the nearby inhabitants quashed that practice!  This is another pillar that cannot be made by a windmill or a Chinese solar panel. If you think about it, our windmills are hundreds of tons of concrete at the base, steel as the structure, copper, neodymium in the alternator, and plastics, fiberglass and epoxy in the rotors. A windmill cannot replicate itself. It is technically possible to use less fossil energy to make cement but absent fossil energy (or tires!) without FF, you don’t have cement.

   The final pillar is Ammonia, NH3 which is familiar to any house husband. Ammonia as a household cleaning chemical represents a tiny fraction of its utility. Ammonia is made by combining nitrogen which is 80% of our atmosphere with hydrogen. Ammonia can then be combined with a variety of salts like nitrate or sulfate to make fertilizer or with other compounds to make explosives. The process was invented in at the beginning of the 20th century. Fritz Haber developed the first significant method mixing gaseous nitrogen with a catalyst to bind the hydrogen in natural gas to the nitrogen.  The technique was improved and refined by Bosch at the BASF chemical company just before World War 1 and is referred to as the Haber-Bosch process. It involves using large quantities of natural gas under very high pressures and temperatures. Ammonia’s most important derived product is commercial fertilizer which was introduced in the 1930s to increase crop production by providing nitrogen cheaply to plants and grains. This one single product has allowed the worlds’ population to more than triple since WW2. Vaclav Smil does not include pesticides, herbicides, and fungicides with ammonia but large scale industrial agriculture using ammonia would not exist without these products which are all made from fossil petroleum and natural gas.

      These four pillars of industry consume a large percentage of all world energy and with the depletion of fossil energy sources their production will fall and this fact is beyond dispute, In the future we will still have access to these pillars but they will no longer be cheap and abundant. You cannot  easily replicate  these pillars with renewable energy sources, so called “green” energy sources. What is a green energy source anyway? Does such a thing even exist?

I will assume that by green energy they mean energy that does not produce CO2 emissions. Is it possible to produce energy or electricity from any process that does not involve burning /oxidizing carbon compounds? I have a degree in chemistry and the only process I know that produces such energy are the organisms on the deep ocean floor that use crustal emissions and minerals in seawater in hydrothermal vents. I know of no others. So I will say there is no such thing as green energy. The Hoover Dam produces energy from falling water releasing no CO2. So does a Tesla using battery energy going from 0 to 60 in 3 seconds. There is no CO2 produced by the solar panels on the roof of my tiny house to run my fridge or its lights and heat.  But Building the Hoover dam involved huge quantities of diesel and coal to move the rock and make the concrete before it released   even a single electron. What about the energy to make the turbines, the copper and steel and other metals as well as the copper or aluminum and steel transmission lines and towers demanding constant maintenance by workers driving diesel powered pickups. Is the Tesla S sedan green? The people driving them must think they are with their virtue signaling behavior as they  silently fly past me going 80 on the interstate. Electric cars like the Tesla do indeed emit no CO2 emission when underway and there is certainly a place for them in some areas, such as countries with dense urban transportation networks  with low average wind speeds and inexpensive and abundant  hydro electricity. An electric car in Oslo makes a great deal of sense. Norway is a country with almost all its electricity produced from hydro dams with occasional fossil fuel backup from its abundant FF reserves. In fact 80% of all new cars sold in Norway today are electric. No CO2 from the tailpipe and none from the dam. What is not to like?  Can’t we all be Norwegians?  Wait just a cotton picking minute. The physicist Mark Mills says that some electric cars will emit more CO2 over their lifetime than an ICE car!  What? . VW recently showed a graph recently promoting their new electric VW in which they showed a comparison between a green VW and a conventional VW. I will try to link the graph.  The graph shows that by the time the electric VW hits the showroom it has consumed 14 tons of CO2 whereas the gasoline VW only 5 tons. As the miles pile up the gasser has to buy gasoline carbon fuel and the electric one does not. The graph shows that by 80000 miles the two graphs cross meaning they have emitted equal quantities of C02. By the end of their lives VW estimates that the electric will emit  only about 20% fewer emissions. I have seen other similar comparisons, some by people not associated with car manufacturers. Mills says that electric cars are at best a wash in emissions and some certainly even over their lives will emit more than a ICE car!! The VW comparison assumes CO2 emissions at a steady temperature. What about a Tesla in my native Wyoming in the winter when the temperature is 30 below? Or in northern Norway in winter?  Granted the electric motor is well over 90% efficient when working  whereas the ICE is at best 30% or so. But this inefficient gas engine has a real advantage in a cold climate as its waste heat can be used to heat the car’s interior as well as parts of the engine and transmission. You can also fill up your ICE car in a few minutes in Wyoming. How long would you have to stand outside to charge up your Tesla? Lithium batteries perform very poorly if they are not kept warm. If you leave your cell phone in your car in Wyoming overnite in the winter you will have no usable phone in the morning. Here is some more battery info. A typical small 1000 lb lithium VW battery will involve mining 500,000 lbs of the earth for its battery components.  Here are the components in this battery: about 11 kilograms of lithium, nearly 14 kilograms of cobalt, 27 kilograms of nickel, more than 40 kilograms of copper, and 50 kilograms of graphite—as well as about 181 kilograms of steel, aluminum, and plastics.  I have also read as much as 1000 grams of silver. These are scarce metals  imported largely from abroad . They are refined almost entirely in China, not in the US\. That is the amount in the base model VW electric car or the The Tesla S. The nicer Tesla Y has a battery over 1700 lbs. This gives the deluxe Tesla a weight of over 5300 lbs empty, the size of my 1998 Tahoe. Then of course there is the source of the charging current for your electric car. Most produced electricity, 70% or so is  from Coal and natural gas. The US is not Norway or Canada with abundant hydro. CO2 may not flow from a Tesla but the electricity to charge it  is emitted elsewhere .  That CO2  may be released in SW Wyoming at our Jim Bridger Coal plant which exports electricity to California.  Out of sight out of mind. All the emissions to make these batteries are emitted  not where the car is driven but from  somewhere else. The only conclusion I can make is that Electric cars may not be  any greener than my aging Corolla . One of the worst things about these battery powered cars is that the battery is not recyclable even composed of  all these scarce and expensive metals. The same is true of most of the batteries in today’s electronics. The world is burning through declining quantities of expensive diminishing metals and minerals and they will all end up in a landfill. At least when my little Toyota goes to heaven you will be able to recover much of the steels and aluminum.

      There is another factoid to note. Governments here and in Europe are providing billions in subsidies to foster electric cars such as infrastructure and purchase subsidies. This is with the stated goals of reducing carbon emissions. From what I have written emissions may not be reduced for electric vehicles very much over their lifetimes. Perhaps as much as 20% at best, if at all. If you look at worldwide carbon emissions,, what is the contribution  worldwide  from passenger vehicles? Eight percent! A measly 8%.  Air travel by comparison is 4%. The really big emitters are of course industry making the 4 pillars of the industrial economy: steel, concrete, plastics, and ammonia and of course power generation, heating and manufacturing. If you want to decrease emissions you go after the heavy hitters, not the ninth ball player in the lineup, passenger cars. I have read several amusing comments on the people promoting these measures as “putting a band aid on a bullet wound.” We are lemmings being led by lemmings or an incompetent pied piper. These are not solutions to reduce emissions. There is one solution and only one and that is to reduce emissions, you reduce energy use of all kinds. At some point some of the more intelligent lemmings amongst us will see that cliff face racing at us and demand a halt. There is recent evidence that the bloom is off the rose on electric cars .High cost, range anxiety, scanty infrastructure  and phony estimates  of range, cost and emissions savings are at last being noticed by consumers and the cars are now piling up on dealer lots unsold and unloved. Resale values of used models are plummeting and some well publicized battery fires result in temperatures of 5000 deg F which cannot be put out with water. Some tow services are refusing to carry them for fear of battery fires with the liability   on the shoulders of the tow driver. A recent Consumer Reports article said that they are less reliable than ICE cars and with these cars now getting long in the tooth, repairs and battery replacements are  looming. Scotty, a car YouTube poster listed the cost in Canada to replace the battery of a S Korean electric car at $50000 Canadian, about what it cost new! Complicating repairs and replacements are that third parties involved in the manufacturing process lack inventory for older models. The sheer cost and difficulty of a battery replacement of a pure EV probably dooms the whole concept.. Hybrid EVs are much more feasible given smaller and modular replacement not involving removing the entire chassis from the frame or the sub frame. Absent niche applications, large expensive Evs are a flawed experiment running quickly out of highway. I would avoid them. I may revisit them in future blogs but I have bigger fish to fry so I will close on that note.

Net Zero:Net Nonsense

Well I may be back to blogging on energy and its role in our lives. I only have done this to try to understand  the dynamics of this complex self regulating superorganism we call our current civilization. I have said that if you can’t understand or even try to understand this civilization without seeing it as part of a complex system and complex systems can’t be understood without using the tool of systems analysis. I have the opinion that energy is the keystone resource of our civilization and that means fossil energy. The most important fossil energy is Oil but Coal and gas are also crucial. Without these energy sources we would still be reliant upon the muscle of our animals and ourselves. Most of us would still be laboring by the sweat of our brows to stay warm and to feed ourselves. That changed when the coal miners digging in the coal pits of Newcastle found themselves knee deep in water unable to increase coal production which was the new miracle energy source of the 18th century. Europe had cut down its previous energy source “trees.. and now coal  production was imperiled.

   It fell to a British inventor, Thomas Newcomen in 1711 to step in with a practical solution. He designed a pump powered by steam from burning coal which operated a pump to remove the water from the mines. It was crude but it worked. It was not the first attempt at utilizing the miraculous power of steam. In the first century AD a Greek called Hero who lived in Alexandria came up with the first device to try to utilize the power of steam to run a “machine. That insight never developed legs for a variety of reasons  Coal mine pumping technology was steadily improved and it wasn’t long before other inventors saw the incredible utility of steam to use it for powering all manner of machines. Oil eventually supplanted coal in many uses and gas supplanted oil right up to this day.  We have always had energy from biomass(mostly wood)  and some water and wind power but even today fossil fuels are still 82% of world energy. We have economists and politicians telling us that because all this burning of fossil fuels is creating carbon dioxide emissions which are heating up our planet, that we need to reduce or eliminate them if we are to “save” our planet. Instead of getting our energy from finite sources we need to get our energy from “renewable” sources which have no emissions to heat up the planet. What’s more we are told we must try to remove these emissions as well which will in theory reduce and eventually and hopefully reverse planetary warming. We will have to “decarbonize” our energy and if we have to continue to use these fossil fuels for a while longer we will have to invent ways to remove Co2 as well as use little or none going forward. Every problem has a solution, right? This is the solution.  All future energy will be from renewable energy. If we have to use a fossil energy source we will have to offset that emitted energy with technology that remove it so there will be no net increase in emissions. That is the “net zero” part of it. How this is supposed to be done will be by means of technology not yet invented and current methods such as increasing the efficiency of existing machines and using less energy to heat and cool our homes and factories. If you build a Tahoe you will have to offset the energy of that Tahoe from the build to the energy emitted during its life time by planting trees for example. That will keep the energy to a net of zero  emitted C02.  Of course we will try to pour investments and subsidies into something more effective by inventing methods to “capture” those emissions. Something is bound to be invented if we pour enough money into research and development. Good old American Know How will eventually save the day. These ideas come out of the mouths of politicians and analysts and economists. They also flow from the mouths of school children and adults who see the damage of a warming world possibly dooming their future.

      All of this activity to reduce global warming or climate change has led to a knee jerk response. Climate change is caused by burning fossil fuels.  Ergo stop burning fossil fuels. It has become a single issue with a single solution encouraged and promoted by conferences and meetings for the past several decades generating more proposals and aspirations from politicians and economists full of sound and fury and to date: signifying nothing!!!  Is Net Zero a stupid idea or one whose time has come? In this and following blogs if I write them, I will try to lay out why the Net Zero movement will be hard pressed stopping the trajectory of climate change.

In fact Net Zero is a terrific idea and one that should be implemented whenever and wherever practical.  But remember: Net Zero is not reducing emissions,. It is offsetting emissions. Reducing carbon emissions should be the necessary ambition to be pursued as a policy objective if it could work. The problem is that a Net Zero framework   cant and won’t solve the emissions of CO2 in the world’s industrial economies. I will try to show why doing something as simple as decarbonizing our energy supply by stopping the combustion of coal, oil and gas as a crash program is flawed and impractical. That we should do everything in our power to reduce emissions  is laudable and essential but in order to attack this one aspect of industrial global pollution we simply must try to look at it with a big picture perspective. That is, we need to look at the entire world. Think of the world as a forest. We cannot just focus on just one tree in the forest. Concentrating on global warming from carbon emissions s just one aspect of one tree.

     There is likely more than one cause of global warming/climate change and human induced CO2 production by fossil fuel burning is certainly a major cause but I will not enter that discussion. If the major cause is C02 from burning fossil fuels that is a cause that will eventually go away starting in this century. We are past peak production of oil, gas and coal in most regions. It is a problem with a solution and the solution will be depletion. In the next blog I will try to layout the role of fossil energy in developing and maintaining our industrial economy.

Is sugar a toxin?

      I have someone you need to meet. I mean REALLY need to meet. I met(saw) him at a lecture a few decades ago when I was attending a medical conference in  the Bay Area  He is Bob Lustig MD, a professor and pediatric endocrinologist who is starting to be noticed because of his health warnings of excessive sugar and processed food consumption. His lecture to medical students was my first exposure to the evils of sugar consumption. That is, the evils of fructose consumption. Fructose is the evil twin of sucrose, table sugar. Thus table sugar is about ½ glucose, AKA dextrose, and ½ fructose. I will sketch out the damage that sugar, fast food and the gigantic processed food industry has wrought upon the US and world population in the past 50 years. Bob and his research group wrote an article in the NY Times in 2011 asking if sugar was toxic? This was news to the world and created a furor in Big food and big Ag and sugar industries who counter attacked fiercely.

       Bo went on to write a book called “Fat Chance” in 2013 and a companion volume “The Fat Chance Cookbook.” I may review and refer to them as well but this review is for his latest (2021) book entitled “Metabolical.”

      If you want to see the body shapes of America before our current epidemic of hypertension, obesity and diabetes just turn on Turner classic movies of films from the 30’s and 40’s such as “It’s a wonderful Life”. What do you see? NO FAT PEOPLE. Ok maybe a few chubs and compare that to the folks you might see at the Atlanta airport, a hub of America. It’s stunning. What happened to the US in the past 5 or 6 decades?

What happened is  the “Metabolic Syndrome.”  I need to tell you that this is a really terrible term which needs a better catchy name but we will have to wait until someone comes up with a better moniker.

     What you need to know is that the Metabolic Syndrome is a collection or constellation of “diseases” that are linked by a common thread of damage and dysfunction at the cellular level and most notably at the mitochondria, that organelle inside every cell that usually is referred to as the “powerhouse” of the cell.  Those of you not well versed in physiology and biochemistry may even now be struggling and thinking this book may not be for you but you are wrong, with the emphasis on DEAD wrong.

     Metabolic Syndrome  refers to what happens to the body when  fed the wrong food rather than “Real Food”. Real food is what Michael Pollan referred to when he said it was food that his grandmother would put on the table in the years before processed food dominated food offerings. You can tell real food because it does not come with an “ingredient list” or a food label. It is what grows in the ground and on trees and bushes, what lays eggs and grazes on grass and swims and thrives  in open unfettered water. It includes grains and legumes and forbs consumed by people and animals.  Anything else is not real food. Even wheat is not real food if it only includes white flour from the endosperm of the wheat berry. Whole wheat is only real food when it includes the bran and the wheat germ as well as the endosperm which is mostly carbohydrate, some protein  and a few micronutrients. This goes for all the grains. If you grind up the wheat and throw away the bran and the wheat germ, you are left with “processed” food.

    Bob Lustig states repeatedly that consumption of processed food and sugar is the cause of the Metabolic syndrome which may affect as much as 88% of the American population. The primary defect in metabolic syndrome  is at the cellular level and most specifically at eight processes within the cell which go awry leading to improper and inappropriate routing of fat to the liver and to visceral fat which lines your abdomen along with subcutaneous fat,” butt fat”.  It is associated with insulin hypersecretion and insulin resistance. The most obvious manifestation is obesity.   Obesity   may be a “symptom” of the metabolic syndrome, a biomarker, if you will. Obesity associated with the metabolic syndrome is not THE problem. Obesity of course can be a serious problem associated with things like respiratory and orthopedic issues.  Interestingly perhaps 20% of obese people do not have metabolic syndrome and will live long and as much as 40% of  thinner folks may have metabolic syndrome. Metabolic syndrome includes hypertension and cardiovascular disease, type 2 diabetes and probably dementia as well as some autoimmune diseases such as ankylosing spondylitis.

    Accordingly it all comes down to diet primarily and lack of exercise as the etiology of the metabolic syndrome.

  The real value of the book is how and why we came to this terrible situation in which most of the developed and developing world is unhealthy because of bad food.

Lustig lays out a long list of missteps and wrongheaded policies at the governmental and corporate level starting with dust bowl policies and terrible totally wrong recommendations such as the low fat policies put into place by nutritionists misled by shoddy research from people like Ancel Keys in the 70’s. Once industry started trying to market low fat foods the population rebelled because the food tasted like cardboard. Industry’s solution was to add sugar and salt and a variety of preservatives and other chemicals to overcome eating cardboard. Society was  also changing. Women were entering the workforce and people felt that buying boxes and cans of processed and nearly prepared food was so much easier than making their own meals from scratch. And along came McDonalds and other fast food chains that did all the work and got you in and out with a supersized double mac, giant order of fries and a 32 oz coke for less than $6. Over 1200 calories for less than $6.

      Lustig lays out the list of villains and it is a long one indeed. They include doctors and dentists and nutritionists and Big Pharma, big AG and feckless politicians whom he names by name.  The biggest nutritional villain is sugar. Lustig presents data on sugar consumption which was about 15 gm(3 tsp) a day  after WW`1 and  about 40 lbs per person/year  in the “70s to 130 lbs(!!!) by 2010. An important driver of this sugar consumption was soda , sports and energy  drinks  and fruit juices. A 32 oz soda from McDonalds has 95 gm of sugar, 19 teaspoons!      Another telling statistic was that of the 600,000 foods in grocery stores over 80% have added sugar!
And it was not only sugar but lack of fiber  that was damaging our bodies. Removing fiber from foods damages the gut. The trillions of “Good” bacteria in the large intestine need to be fed properly to develop a healthy biome and it is fiber, both soluble and insoluble fiber that feeds these beneficial critters. If you don’t feed the “good” bacteria their proper diet of fiber you get an influx of “bad” bacteria which leads to all manner of problems like “leaky gut” syndrome. The other important toxin is fructose in sucrose and honey and maple syrup , agave and most especially high fructose corn syrup, a chemically derived ultra cheap sweetener. The problem with fructose toxicity is almost identical as the problem of alcohol toxicity because fructose can only be metabolized in the liver and therein lies the problem. The metabolites are aldehydes…think formaldehyde. Excess of alcohol and fructose end up in the liver and visceral fat with terrible consequences among which is inflammation. Fatty liver disease and alcoholic liver disease may progress to inflammatory cirrhosis.

   At this point I need to tell the reader that Bob’s earlier book “Fat Chance” is an easier read for the lay person . Metabolical has about 30 pages in Part 2 that I found extremely useful and valuable to a detailed understanding of metabolic syndrome. But a disclaimer here: I am a doctor who studied biochemistry and physiology and I majored in chemistry. If you didn’t, you may find this dense and incomprehensible. In fact Bob even suggest skipping over it to his excellent recommendations of how to self diagnose and discuss this  intelligently with your physician . I think that is fine but I do suggest the reader trying to understand the disease at the cellular level and if necessary come back to review or seek other sources in books or on youtube.

   One of the more interesting sections of the book dealt with the addictive properties of sugar and other additives to fast and processed food such as caffeine and Lustig makes an analogy with the crimes of the Tobacco industry doctoring nicotine content to increase addictive properties. He also goes to great length to describe why all these chemicals and additions and subtractions to food are done which has mostly to do with stability and shelf life. Recall the stories of 30 year old Twinkies!

     He also discusses at some length what diets exist and why some are better than others at ameliorating metabolic syndrome. It’s not all good news. Some of the depressing revelations have to do with the concept of epigenetics in which the dietary missteps of a pregnant mother influence the health and long term outcome of her fetus. Allowing children unfettered access to sweets and horrible foods like sweetened morning cereals can doom a child not only to cavities but to long term sugar dependence.  Once a person has loaded up his liver and visceral fat and arteries, removing it can prove very difficult to reverse.

     I will let the reader draw his or her own conclusions upon understanding the value of real food and avoiding consumption of “unreal” food.  Over the past decade we have made changes to our diet and now eat almost entirely real food such as grinding our own grains, raising our own livestock and poultry that graze on grass, eating wild game and having large gardens. This can be difficult for urban apartment dwellers but most of us have access to farmers markets where you can look the farmer in the eye. Get used to it. Real food costs more. Processed food  and fast food which I call “fast garbage” is cheap and subsidized and convenient if you are by nature lazy.

 Real food is the key to combating the metabolic syndrome. And don’t forget exercise. Exercise is a lousy way to lose weight and if that is the only reason you do it, you will be sorely disappointed. Regular exercise generates increased production of mitochondria, lowers serum cortisol, aids your sleep, diminishes stress and if you’re lucky gives you doses of endorphins, your runner’s high.

      There is one thing which Robert Lustig  gave in his detailed recommendations in both books which I found particularly useful. He divides food into 3 colors: red foods, yellow foods and green foods. Red foods might be that big slab of chocolates cake slathered with ice cream which you can have occasionally, even once a week. Yellow foods are foods such as potatoes or white flour pasta, high carbohydrates maybe 2 or 3 times a week and green foods are almost all fruits and vegetables eggs  and whole grains to consume anytime and often.  Lustig  does not specifically mention foods I would call “black foods” which should never be consumed but it is tacitly there all through his book if you read between the lines. Never NEVER drink sodas or sweetened drinks or any fruit juices. Oranges and apples, yes. Orange and apple juice juice, never. The fiber in the fruit is the antidote to the fructose. And renounce all fast food outlets. Avoid them like the plague.

   Finally Bob lists what can be done to combat the giant industries  on a political level who have been willfully destroying public health and that of course is enacting laws and issuing fines to the culprits much like what was done to big tobacco. That means laws and of this I am less sanguine. I live in a wonderful state full of libertarians suspicious of the “nanny state” who want to issue laws restricting your freedoms like taking away your guns and now your sugar! I think a more realistic strategy is educating the public that sugar is a poison in large amounts. Use a little occasionally and if it is in the ingredient list on the box, just put it back on the shelf.

    I have just a tiny quibble with Bob’s sugar as a poison concept.It is the fructose that is the real poison. If you simply must have some sweet in your life, substitute Glucose, commonly known as dextrose. It is expensive in small quantities and so we buy it bulk in 50 lb sacks which can be obtained online or in places like brewer supply stores. If the recipe call for sucrose and you don’t want to give up the yummy tang of molasses or brown sugar, try using only 50% sucrose and using dextrose for the other 50%.  If we bake sweets, that is how we use sugar. BTW, Karo corn syrup is pure liquid dextrose.

      Bob mentions in his book that people’s attitudes can change and prohibitions enacted. MADD have sut drunk driving accidents way down. Seat belts in cars were ignored and ridiculed and now who would climb in a gar without snapping on their belt. Even trans fats were in all bakery goods and are now gone. If you value your health and those you love you must read this book. Now that Bob is retired he is finding time for interviews with people like Nate Hagens on Youtube.

Book review:We Die Alone

Book Review: We Die Alone

    We Die Alone is the miraculous survival story of Jan Baalsrud, a Norwegian commando infiltrated  into northern Norway in the  late winter of 1943 with a mission to disrupt or destroy Nazi communication and air assets. The four man English trained unit arrives at a remote island in a disguised commercial fishing boat laden with explosives and arms smuggled inside herring barrels and fish boxes only to be betrayed by collaborators who alert the Nazi occupiers. Everything goes wrong in a brief firefight as the 4 man commando group and the 8 man crew flees to shore under a hail of gunfire. Only Jan escapes up a steep snow slope, shot in the foot and fighting for his life. Thus begins one of the most improbable escape and evasion stories ever to come out of the Second World War.

      The author, David Howarth, a Naval officer and British historian was involved in the Shetland Bus, the very SOE operation based in the Shetland Islands  that was responsible for this particular  tragic fiasco. After the arrival of the doomed vessel at the tip of Norway, nothing more was ever heard again of the fate of the men until much later in the war when it was revealed that there had been one survivor, Jan Baalsrud who managed to escape to neutral Sweden. This is the story of that escape pieced meticulously together by Howarth in a thin book published in 1954.

     Howarth had heard of bits and pieces of the saga during the war and found it almost unbelievable and his work to unearth the details was a masterwork in itself. He went back to the area some years later and retraced all the events, photographing and interviewing not only Jan Baalsrud but all of the Norwegian farmers and fishermen who concealed Baalsrud and help him reach the Swedish border. The photographs in the book showed  the heroic Norwegians and their Fjords and villages and even include some pictures of a memorial climb by Baalsrud and three of his rescuers a decade later. The final leg was a mad dash across a thawing lake on the border  in Lapland being pulled by reindeer  with  German bullets  zinging over their heads.

      Baalsrud is clearly a remarkable man but the real heroes were the villagers in these remote hamlets who risked their lives to save him. Above and beyond the call of duty is an understatement and Davis Howarth gives credit where credit is due.

      We Die Alone was written almost seventy years ago and deserves much wider dissemination and remembrance. IT is extremely well written and suspenseful and is a page turning extravaganza which will lock the reader from beginning to end. I couldn’t put it down.

2022: a year of converging trends

Life on our little Wyoming Farm is settling down. We have put our tup in with all the girls which should yield some cute little lambs come 1 May or so if the estrus cycles converge. we have cut, split and stacked a bit over 4 cords of firewood and the two plows are on the vehicles. We are loaded for bear but we seem to be in a drought along with the entire West. It has been very warm with temps 20 to 30 degrees above average now for the last few weeks. Why would bears want to hibernate if the ground is bare? The mountain snowpack isn’t even deep enough to cover the grass let alone be enough meltwater to sustain our hayfields and we may have to forgo cutting hay for the 2nd year in a row. If drought becomes the norm it may be time to sell hay equipment

Trust in political leaders around the world seems to continue to ebb with authoritarian measures to contain, control and ignore large chunks of the population increasing dissent. The operative word has been polarization, a physics term relating to electron flow when the real meaning has been severe difference of opinion which has intensified to the point of resistance against authoritarian measures by the power elites as they seek to maintain the narrative of the machine by doubling down thrashing the populace with their cat o nines.

What we are seeing is a failure of the narrative as the social fabric unravels. In a real sense we are witnessing the dissolution of the Myth Of Progress as the dominant narrative of the Industrial Revolution. What must be understood as progress is that the progress of the past 250 years has been made possible by exponentially increasing combustion of oil, gas and coal running machines formerly run on human and animal muscle. With machines growing our food, making our products and harvesting our mineral and natural resources from timber to fisheries, our “human” resources” were freed to engage in a myriad of new professions and activities and most especially in the emerging fields of science and technology. The great bulk of new discoveries , inventions and scientific advancements in medicine and physics and chemistry have happened in the past 150 years, barely 2 lifetimes. But it hasn’t been made possible by machines. It has been made possible by the fossil energy turning those machines. In the process the society expanded exponentially as food production increased exponentially and no surprise energy use also expanded exponentially. The complexity of society increased as more energy driving more machines came into use. The last and possible final revolution was the computer and internet revolution which had the unforeseen result of accelerating all the previous activities of the industrial revolution but adding analysis and performance efficiencies in real time at the speed of electrons flowing through circuits which became integrated with Intels first IC in 1971. From that time on the Energy use exponential curve steepened sharply and as energy use increased so did the emissions. In fact 75% of all emissions since the Industrial revolution into the atmosphere have occurred in the past 65 years and the world is paying the price and will continue to do so as the half life of Atmospheric Co2’s effects lasts 10000 years. The dark side of the computer technology revolution is just now starting to be realized as instant connectivity between people has allowed instant surveillance of people and their habits and locations and thoughts and messages and with this surveillance came the attempted control of their thoughts and activities, particularly their economic activities which of course increased complexity of the economic system into what has been termed the superorganism by Nate Hagens. With the corporate control of human activity has come the political controls, all fostered by this technology driven by electrons from fossil energy. To say that we are now enslaved by the Technocracy is no exaggeration. The slaves may have been freed in 1865 but by 1965 the new enslavement had begun.

The technocracy is the new religion and is displacing democracy in what we have now as the last gaps of the progress myth. If you don’t think that Technocracy is viewed as the new religion, read this comment by Kevin Kelley, a Silicon Valley Vizier:“We can see more of God in a cell phone than a tree frog.” Technocracy is the perfect handmaiden of the authoritarian elites with now fabulously efficient command and control functions over what we do and how we think and where we can go.under mandates establish by the state. It is not just the CCP in China that is grading its citizens as worthy or obedient servants in the name of security but the so called developed West. Does this still seem like progress to you?

In future blogs I will continue discussions of these converging trends. Keep in mind my analytic bias is deeply grounded in energy thermodynamics and it is those thermodynamics that will drive the new as yet unnamed narrative.

Viruses and vaccines

A discussion with emphasis on Sars-Cov-2

This blog will  deal with a few thoughts on covid and the various so called “vaccines”. In todays blog we are featuring the mRNA vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna   and the Vector vaccines from J&J and Astra Zeneca. I will get back to talking about more important subjects like collapse of civilizations later. I think I may also talk about the the joys and pitfalls of a small farm and being a grandfather. Since I don’t keep a journal I might as well do it here.  This is a rambling discursive approach to a serious subject but I like to ramble  sometimes…………Today’s topic is how do viruses and vaccines work? Viruses have long been an interest of mine because they are just outside of what we call “life” . They are tiny and powerful and can give orders with the force of my favorite Cuban Marine drill sergeant back in Beast Barracks . Viruses can bring a civilization to its knees. If we tame them they can save a civilization. What’s not to like about viruses….?

      This digression about viruses and vaccines and the takeover of our civilization by the corporate big Pharma political alliances including the Gates Foundation worldwide has been better covered in places like the automaticearth.com and recently Paul Kingsnorth in Ireland on his website. Most of it is paywalled(which I am thrilled to pay) but the covid stuff is not. Read it and then do your weeping offline.

Lets get down to what these vaccines are and are not and whether we should continue using them. First what are mRNA vaccines and how do they work?

   The mRNA Vaccines are not vaccines in the traditional sense. In a traditional vaccine you isolate your pathogen and grind them up in a Waring Blender and then filter the mess thru a coffee filter and stick it into a vial for later use on some poor defenseless child. Ok. A little more complicated than that. You isolate and purify your bad viruses and inactivate them by chemicals or heat or radiation or what have you where they are now still in one piece so to speak, but have lost enough of their genome so they can’t replicate and do damage. Once in your arm or your stomach they end up in cells so that your immune system   can react to them because these are composed of amino acids assembled into protein”antigens”. Your immune system recognizes them as foreign proteins and kick starts your immune system to making antibodies of various sorts like T cells and neutralizing antibodies . Some of these are quick acting and short lived and some long acting and some somehow file away information so your body can remember and thereby mount an immune attack months or years or even decades  later if needed.

      mRNA  vaccines were part of Trump’s “warp speed” vaccine development program as you recall. Viruses are of all kinds of shapes and forms just like people, and it turns out this Covid 19 virus  properly called SARS-cov-2 was of the class of Corona viruses so called because of their “crown” or corona of spike proteins. It happens that these so called spikes in the crown were the way the virus attacked the cells to get in to the cell factory to make the cell produce viruses instead of the usual production of constituents for the cell and the body. The spikes attach to receptors on the cell called ACE receptors which stands for angiotensin converting enzyme receptors which are receptors plentiful in many organs primarily the heart and lung. These hijacked cells  now start to make new products sort of like during WW2 when the Ford factory in Michigan switched from making jalopies to making B-24 bombers.

      Pfizer uses protein nanoparticles  of mRNA  to enter the cell taking over the muscle cells to make the so called “S” proteins of the Covid  spikes. The instructions are very specific to the early variety of the Covid virus, the Alpha variant, which was first on the scene. Note they are not making the whole Covid virus but just the spike proteins. These proteins somehow accumulate on the surface of the cell and the body’s immune system sees them as foreign invaders and mounts an immune response making antibodies to these foreign protein amino acid sequences. These antibodies’ flood the body. When some schmuck now comes along and coughs in your face, you inhale his virus load which attacks your ace receptors but this time the now armed immune system attacks the invading virus spikes and binds to it or neutralizes it in some fashion. That’s the way it works or is supposed to work. Are there possible things that can go wrong like unintended consequences or side effects? Sure but we will cover that later.

    How do the non mRNA vaccines work like those from J&J and AZ?  Instead of using RNA they use DNA for the instruction set. The DNA is tucked inside a benign virus which has been made even more benign by “inactivating” it so it can’t cause you a URI. J&J uses a cold adenovirus and Astra Zeneca the other main player over there in merrie olde England uses a chimpanzee virus. They also inactivate the chimp virus to keep it from replicating. Once these so called Vector viruses get inside the cell the DNA  escapes and gives genetic instructions using DNA instead of RNA to make the S proteins and you know the rest. An immune response. There are a bunch of other players using similar approaches with  different viruses to deliver their protein instructions. Some work pretty well and some don’t.

   There are many types of vaccines.There are virus vector vaccines, protein subunit vaccines and mRNA vaccines.  Let’s get to the virus vector vaccines because they have been around the longest and have had the most research and testing. There are 4 types: RC,RD,SC, AND MS. RC is replication competent,RD is replication deficient,SC is single cycle, amd MS is multisegmented. RC means the virus can reproduce, RD means it can’t, single cycle is self explanatory, and SC and multisegmented I may try to take up in a later blog. This blog will just talk about the RC/RD vector vaccines.

   The RC vaccines have advantages and disadvantages. They have the advantage of reproducing releasing gobs and heaps of antigens and if you use them, you have what amounts to “leverage” in production. A few viruses can produce a lot of antigens. They have disadvantages which were noted fairly early. Specifically they can overwhelm people who have deficient immune systems, because of certain diseases like cancer or taking immunosuppressants. Virologists like the RC class because of the leverage involved which means fewer product needed, lower cost etc. They have tried tinkering with the RC virus vectors to tone them down to improve the safety profile which has worked in some circumstances and not in others so worries remain.

      The RD class of virus vectors on paper looks good because with the virus prevented from replication, the safety profile is much improved. With these viruses you may be dealing with real nasties like the Ebola virus so you want to prevent them replicating. There have been a few success stories with human and animal vaccines, Most notably the ERVEBO by Merck used for Ebola, a very dangerous virus. It took 5 years to develop the vaccine and was licensed in late 2019.  According to the NIH this year over 300000 people have so far gotten the jab including babies and pregnant women and even HIV folks. This after extensive animal testing. Data on efficacy is still being collected but so far so good. Fingers crossed. Contrast this Merck work with the Pfizer trials of 50,000 people over six months. I wonder why Pfizer  got the nod for the Covid vaccine instead of Merck. It might have taken too long and Trump had an election to win? Just sayin’. Of course with such rushed trials the Trump administration couldn’t wait for the wheels of careful responsible vaccine development to turn so they had to sweeten the pot with help from the Pfizer lawyers so Pfizer was released from liability in case the vaccine was a dud or caused injuries. Because everything was a big Emergency don’t you know. Trump had to give it a EUA(emergency use authorization) to get it out to the voters . The trial results and data from the research should be a matter of public record because much of this initial research was underwritten by the public. In order to backstop my comments I would need to look at the data with help from vaccine experts who would have to be impartial and independent. But guess what ? Our FDA has sealed these records until 2076 at Pfizer’s request!!! Do you think it’s possible they have something to hide? Do I look cynical to you? Lily Tomlin said:”No matter how cynical I get, I find that I just can’t keep up.”

     Somehow I got off track because I wanted to talk about all the fascinating and incredibly complex work done with the other virus vectors using all manner of viruses. Here is just a sample of those viruses used for human and animal diseases and cancer immunotherapy:Retroviruses and Lentiviruses. Lentiviruses have been used for immunotherapy. Then of course we have the ever popular pox viruses, herpseviruses, arrenaviruses and flaviviruses. Yellow Fever is a flavivirus and I read that immunity in some have lasted 39 years! Then of course I’m sure you are familiar with the paramyxoviruses which cause rubeola and mumps. There are others of course like the Rhabdoviruses which cause Rabies but I think I see a lot of glazed eyes out there so let’s wrap this up. We can talk about the social cost and the political polarization with world wide protests against this globalized vaccination against a virus which as Trump said was no worse than Flu. FYI look at this year by year  fatality  table from  of all people, the CDC:

SARS-Cov-2 mortality by year

BTW I should list this most excellent paper from Pub Med about the excellent work developing the Ebola vaccine:

pubmed logo Search:





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Review Vaccines (Basel)

. 2021 Feb 25;9(3):190. doi: 10.3390/vaccines9030190.

Development of Pandemic Vaccines: ERVEBO Case Study

Jayanthi Wolf  1 Risat Jannat  2 Sheri Dubey  3 Sean Troth  4 Matthew T Onorato  5 Beth-Ann Coller  6 Mary E Hanson  7 Jakub K Simon  6 Affiliations

Free PMC article

Compare and contrast with the botched and secretive Pfizer trials. I read the whole paper but I forgive anyone for not doing the same. It would be a slog for some…hugh

Book Review:At the End of the World

by Lawrence Millman

At the End of the World putatively is about a series of murders in the Belcher Islands in SE Hudson Bay in 1941. Anglican missionaries had instilled ideas of Jesus, God and Satan into the animistic Inuit islanders who already had an ancient belief that any animal or spirit could enter a person leaving them unchanged on the outside and transformed on the inside. A few folks imbued with fear of the devil decided that the devil had possessed some of their own and several of them whom Jesus and God had entered took it upon themselves to extirpate the Devil using harpoons, bullets and clubs with predictable results. The RCMP was notified and a trial was held with just white men on the jury from outside the village and punishment was meted out.
The book is very little about those murders and more a running commentary about loss of habitat in this our sixth mass extinction. Millman doesn’t directly come out and include the extinction of homo sapiens but does imply that the digital transformation of the culture is a very bad thing leading to evolution(devolution?) of the human species into what he calls homo insapiens. This new species lives divorced from nature, from the real world, living in a virtual world which he calls Cyberia. He bemoans these pitiful creatures with their heads down scratching on their glass faced hand tools checking facebook posts and emails addictively. If you are one of those people you are liable to feel insulted at Millman’s tone and declare this book a waste of your valuable screen time. If you are a Luddite or a Neo Luddite like Millman you will be entertained by his gentle needling of this feckless pointless activity of the past 2 decades transforming the world. The book has quotes from naturalists John Muir, Loren Eiseley, Also Leopold , Henry David Thoreau and others extolling the value of wild nature which is fast disappearing along with the culture of these arctic Eskimo people who have given up their dog sleds for snowmobiles which they navigate using the gps in their smart phones. It is a story of loss but he uses the Inuit word to conclude the thin book……”Ajurnamaat”……………Trans: “That’s the way it is…………”

Book Review:A Higher Call

By Adam Makos

I don’t know how I missed this book but reading it was cathartic to this former Army officer and his B17 Flying Fortress bomber pilot father.

    This is a story of chivalry by a Luftwaffe ME 109 fighter pilot named Hans Stigler who pursued a gravely wounded B17 attempting to return to England following a bombing raid on Bremen  Dec 20, 1943.  While on the ground refueling and rearming, Franz  Stigler saw a shot up B17 Flying Fortress limping slowly toward the North Sea on 2 engines. Stigler fired up his ME109 and flew off in hot pursuit finally catching up with the bomber just south of the Flak gun protected Atlantic Wall north coast of Germany. Creeping up astern at slow speed the fighter ace could not believe the bomber was still flying.

Ye Olde Pub as she was named, was missing most of its horizontal stabilizer and rudder and and was shredded  with numerous bullet holes and  20mm cannon damage. The tail gunner’s position was shattered along with what remained of the tailgunner himself, His 50 caliber guns dropping down aimlessly.. Just as Stigler was about to pull the trigger on his 20mm cannon he paused, stunned by the bloody carnage in front of him. He pulled ahead just above the bomber’s right wing  to survey the remaining crew who glanced over at the fearsome  German fighter,  assuming the worst. After 10 minutes in which Franz Stigler escorted the lumbering bomber past the upraised eyes of the Flak gunners who refused to shoot because one of their own was in the sky, Stigler peeled off to return back to base. This is the story of that encounter which remained secret for more than 45 years but it is much more than one incredible inexplicable incident. It is an emotional biography of a famous German fighter ace and the B17 bomber pilot by the name of Charlie Brown who against all odds managed to reach England on a wing and a prayer. The story begins with 12 year old Franz crashing on his first flight in a home built glider and traces his flying life initially as a Lufthansa airline pilot in the 1930’s until he was drafted to become a fighter pilot helping the Desert Fox Rommel in North Africa and ending finally in the dying days of the Third Reich with Stigler flying the world’s first jet aircraft, the twin engine ME 262. The narrative shifts back to the Eight Air Force bomber command and what it was like for Lieutenant Charlie Brown getting ready for his first mission over Germany.  Author Adam Makos does a masterful job delving into the emotions of these two characters in a way that few war books have ever done. One can compare it to “All Quiet on the Western Front” as a tour de force of what war is really like. A quarter of the book is the heart warming epilogue of these two pilots’ lives after the war and their improbable reunion 47 years later.

     The story has personal poignancy for me because my father was a WW2 B17 bomber pilot and I was a military officer in Germany in the 1970’s. I visited many of the WW2 bombing targets, most notably the ill fated slaughter of Eight Air Force planes attempting to knock out the ball bearing factory in Schweinfurt. I stood on a hill with a former German officer who was there during the raid watching Allied bombers spiraling down on fire and smoke, one after the other. The book is also a back story of the conflict between the code of honor of the German Air Force and the ruthless evil of  Nazi  SS Air Marshal Goering whose inept leadership eventually brought down the Luftwaffe. The book is destined to become a classic.